USD (against majors and broad) have been strong for the last 2 years due to economic recovery, monetary effects and interplay with commodities. However those same factors might be reversing or stalled recently. Even with FED signaling some hawkishness we are not in the same environment as the 80s “FED behind the curve” and not even on those 90s strong growth, to remind us of the last two bull dollar cycles that market have in mind after the end of Bretton Woods. On the two charts below we can see some trend changes on both monetary and economic growth. I am using as economic activity an index built with Housing Permits and Industrial Production to capture both effect as they have a strong cyclical pattern. For both Dollar (majors) and economic activity Im using the 10Y growth. Despite it measures a long term trend its useful specially to see trend changes: The same trend switch is also possible to be seen on the monerary front. The below chart I used the change